Guide updated November 5, 2026

Calculate cumulative shiny-generation chance for the correct source and an explicit number of eligible checks. Choose wild, gacha or rift; do not use kills or minutes as an unqualified substitute for checks.

Account pulls require a connection

From the original 4 November update, a signed-in cloud account sends its pull to the original account service. If you are offline or that request fails, the client reports an error and does not silently perform a local pull. Guest pulls still use the local algorithm. The official notice says ordinary gameplay and the shop are unchanged; this connection requirement concerns account pulls, not every offline action.

Check the active banner and enough tickets first. The client locks the pull button while processing, waits for an outstanding save and reuses one operation ID during retries. A revision conflict merges the returned save and retries with a new revision, up to four loop attempts; a transport failure only gets an initial retry, not four guaranteed network retries. Closed banner, insufficient tickets, offline and general failure are separate outcomes. A successful response supplies canonical coins, both ticket balances, ledger, collection, shinies, banner pity and total pulls before the result animation.

After a timeout, reconnect and let the same account sync; inspect its actual tickets, collection and pity before trying again. A missing response does not prove the server never processed the pull or guarantee a refund. Do not clear storage or edit signed copies to repair it. The published local probability, pity, ten/100-pull costs, duplicate refunds and shiny formulas are unchanged in this client snapshot. Wiki calculators remain planning tools: enter the latest confirmed account values; they cannot execute, restore or certify a real server pull.

Wiki configurations and game progress are separate

This original update changes save/cache handling, not the combat catalog, prices, odds or calculator formulas. All 13 tools retain their inputs, calculations, share links and JSON import/export. A Wiki configuration restores tool inputs; it cannot recover an original account’s cloud/browser progress. After game recovery, use the actual restored balance and collection in the planners and tracker.

Current original snapshot and tool model

Original public client eae98df1a1 (version timestamp 4 November 23:19:53 UTC), reviewed 5 November. Comparing complete normalized client modules found 101 unchanged and 13 changed/new modules. Executed catalog comparisons retain 966 Pokémon, 103 moves, 97 evolutions, 4,830 stat checks and 412 move-level transitions; gacha, combat, shop and progression formulas remain unchanged. All thirteen Wiki tools retain calculations, sharing and JSON recovery; use confirmed account balances for planning. Catalog source d567c6da, execution/upload model 5c97df2e, seasonal rules f7fbcfc4 and calendar d667c216 remain separately versioned.

The game embedded here remains the independent survivorpoke.com/play/ release 3667bcad81 with selected f7 seasonal changes; Community calculations retain their own fixed model. The new original account service and online-pull behaviour have not been deployed into that embedded game by this Wiki update. These versions must not be treated as identical.

Calendar and calculator versions

Pokémon, move levels, evolutions and legal learnsets stay at d567c6da; seasonal combat/rewards stay at f7fbcfc4 and damage/buff execution at 5c97df2e. Only the calendar is updated to d667c216. New planners use the extended window; old f7 calendar shares retain the former November 2 midnight end and show a calendar selector. The original public bundle 01d06d8e0c matched immutable d667c216 on October29. The embedded game remains a separate observed3667bcad81 build declaring selective f7 adaptation; this Wiki does not change it or claim that its calendar was extended. Community calculations remain fixed395a0e47/build559ca0a7c8.

Which version does this use?

Latest original execution rules: 5c97df2e (October 27); reviewed October 28. Pokémon, move, evolution and legal-learning data remain d567c6da; Halloween stays f7fbcfc4. All 13 tools are retained. New original calculations use the independent equipment pool and corrected buff transition. Previously versioned shares without an execution pin retain d567c6da behavior and display that pin; use Recalculate with current rules to migrate deliberately. Community remains its separate fixed snapshot and keeps its own rules. The iframe remains https://survivorpoke.com/play/. Source tests and projections do not establish that both live games behave identically. Public bytes observed October 28 match embedded build 3667bcad81, declared selective upstream f7fbcfc4. The Community calculator is the fixed 395a0e47 snapshot (build marker 559ca0a7c8), not a reproduction of that current embedded build.

Spooky Night: its own pool and pity

The event banner uses Ghost-type Pokémon from every region that have game sprites, split by their existing rarity. It is internal banner 10, not a tenth generation. It has independent pity[10], fixed 2% shiny rolls and no Shiny Charm, so collection completion cannot raise it to 4%. Rarity rates remain 45/30/17/6.5/1.5%; the 70th pull without a five-star forces five-star and each ten-pull guarantees at least four-star. An empty rarity falls back in order 0, −1, +1, −2, +2, −3, +3, −4, +4. A hundred-pull is ten ten-pulls. Shiny duplicates reroll an unowned shiny in the same actual rarity pool; if all are owned, the result becomes normal. The nine regular regional banners and their charms remain separate.

Candy: drop budget, collection and shop cost

The shared ambient budget is floor(run seconds ÷ 60 × 1.25). Ghost defeats and broken pumpkins need at least 1 unspent unit; other non-Judgment enemies need a backlog of 3, but each successful drop consumes only 1 and drops 1 candy. Defeating more enemies cannot bypass the time budget. Drops still need collecting. Pumpkins also give 8 XP and a 50% chance of 2 coins. Entering the great Gengar fight grants 60 candy; in co-op the host grants it to everyone. Judgment enemies do not produce ambient candy. At a 30:00 transition, 37 ambient drops + 60 bonus = at most 97, so three such runs give 291, short of a 300-candy skin. A delayed transition can change that budget; the planner asks for its actual start time and whether the fight was reached.

Source versions used here

Halloween: dates, candy, skins and Spooky Night

Regional Shiny Charms and collection requirements

Own every species in the region, including legendaries; a defeat record alone does not count. The charm is derived automatically from ownership, with no separate save flag. Matching-banner shiny odds rise from 1% to 2%. Each ten-pull locks its rate at batch start: completing the region inside a batch affects the next batch. Wild 1/4096 and rift 1/512 stay unchanged.

Plan ×100

The current original-game buttons are ×10 and ×100. ×100 costs 100 normal tickets OR 10 ten-pull tickets, without mixing. It runs ten ten-pull batches; each keeps its ≥4★ guarantee. This planner also retains arbitrary draw counts and unbatched API scenarios. Skip/Esc only shortens animation.

Animation, skip and result order

×100 shows ten spins, each representing the best result of that ten-pull batch. The final summary counts new species, shinies and refunded PokéCoins; cards are sorted by shiny first, then rarity, then new ownership. The results and ticket cost are committed before animation. Skip or Esc reveals them sooner without rerolling.

Earlier calculator snapshot (d567c6da)

Original-game data: source d567c6da. See the data version for applicable rules and sources.

Data version and sources

What to do

Select source and eligibility.
Enter generated check count or desired probability.
Compare cumulative chance and required checks.

Numbers & conditions

Independent eligible checks use P=1−(1−p)^n and n=ceil(log(1−goal)/log(1−p)). Source rates are 1/4096, 1/100 and 1/512. Expected checks 1/p are not a guarantee.

Common mistakes

This models generation, not survival, collection or a named species encounter rate. Gacha rerouting can make a named-target process nonindependent.

Original and embedded edition

These additions apply to the pinned original release 1a52cc838c. The embedded community game uses its separate published rules snapshot: its Meteor Mash and legacy evolution names are retained by the Community model, and the new original-only Orbs, Plate scoring and item-break assumptions are not applied to it.

Version and source details

Tools

Shiny Probability

Game data & sources

The linked game files show where these stats, costs and rules come from. Updates to the game may change them.

Data version: d567c6da

Data version →